Image result for the week ahead

US consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales dominate the week, With inflation weakening in the eurozone, the US figures will command plenty of attention, given the speculation about a faster pace of US tightening and the recent appreciation in the US dollar index.

Please note the US change their clocks on 11 March, so all US economic events occur an hour earlier than usual for the next two weeks.

Forex Outlook

US dollar will be in focus this week with high-Impact US Data on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. Tuesday Australia time 23:30 (20:30 hk/sg time) the US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to hold at 2.1% YoY but fall to 0.2% from 0.5% MoM. Core inflation forecast to be 1.8% YoY, in line with last month, while the MoM figure falls to 0.2% from 0.3%. Market to watch: USD.

Wednesday Australia time 23:30 (20:30 hk/sg time) the US Retail sales figures, expected to rise 0.3% MoM from -0.3% the month before. Markets to watch: US indices, USD.

Friday Australia time 23:30 (20:30 hk/sg time) the US Michigan consumer confidence (March, preliminary): expected to fall to 99.2 from 99.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD.

These can each bring some insight into near-term price action, particularly the inflation report before the March 20-21 FOMC rate decision.

Next Week’s Forecast: The fundamental forecast for next week in the US Dollar will be set to neutral.

Metal Outlook

Geopolitical uncertainty is helping to support gold prices but an impending rate hike in less than two weeks could finally take its toll on the market, with some analysts expecting gold prices to test support below $1,300 an ounce in the near-term. Gold has remained resilient, but it could be overwhelmed by headwinds of higher bond yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar,” Looking ahead, Gold said that he expects precious metals to follow its familiar pattern of selling off ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision and then rally once investors gauge the underlying trajectory of interest rates for the rest of the year.

·         Inflation Remains Key For U.S. Monetary Policy & Gold. Keep watch of US data mention above.

·         Gold Still Tied To The U.S. Dollar. Although sentiment in the gold market is starting to turn bearish as prices have been unable to test $1,340 highs, but it is too early to call an end to the market uptrend, both the U.S. dollar and gold are caught in a neutral trading range as both markets face the same balance of headwinds and tailwinds.

 

 

Oil Outlook

This Week’s fundamental focal point that may affect the energy markets (time in US eastern time):

  • Monday 03:00 PM ET (03:00am hk/sg): EIA’s Monthly Drilling Productivity Report
  • Tuesday, Day of 2: Oil & Finance Conference in Oslo
  • Tuesday 04:30 PM ET: API issues weekly US Oil Inventory report
  • Wednesday 10:30 AM ET: EIA issues weekly US Oil Inventory Report
  • Wednesday 12:00 PM ET: EIA releases its monthly supply report
  • Thursday 05:00 AM ET: IEA monthly Oil Market Report
  • Fridays 1:00 PM ET: Baker-Hughes Rig Count at
  • Friday 3:30 PM ET: Release of the CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on U.S. futures, options contracts

Crude Oil prices may continue to fall, traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a weaker Oil .