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According to a Reuters survey of economists, non-farm payrolls probably rebounded by 190,000 jobs in October after Florence depressed restaurant and retail payrolls in September.


The NFP (Nonfarm employment change) and the unemployment rate, both these economic events will be closely monitored at 20:30 (hk/sg). Looking at the forecast, the NFP is expected to be rise by 194K vs 134K during the previous month. On Wednesday, the ADP figure came out better than the forecast and due to its positive correlation with the NFP, investors are expecting the same kind of news from the NFP.

What effect to USD from the NFP today?

It appears like the Greenback is less likely to strengthen on the news release (194k forecast) as most of it is already priced in. In fact, better than a 194K figure can fuel the bullish trend in the dollar. On the other hand, investors are expecting no change in the unemployment which is likely to remain at 3.7%.

Average Hourly Earnings m/m - In addition to the nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate, we need to focus on the average hourly earnings as well. In October, the earnings picked up to 0.3%, signaling a growth in the labor market but economists aren't much optimistic about this month's report. The figures are expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.3%.

For USD and GOLD

Today non-farm payroll number will be doubly important since another miss in the number, as was the case last month,could generate further weakness in the USD and give gold a push to the $1,245 high.

For US stocks

The NFP appears to be an especially sensitive time as the economy hums along but there are some signs of inflation. There's a bit of a sense that today report needs to thread the needle. If it shows jobs growth that is ahead of expectations, that could point to good times for the economy, but Wall Street could react negatively out of worry that the Fed might tighten rates too much. If the jobs report is weaker than expected, that could boost some stocks, but in the longer run it could prove a negative for the economy and eventually weaken cyclical stocks that do well when the economy does well.