September Federal Reserve (Fed) decision is upon us and while the rate increase is all but assured, the key points for markets will be in what policymakers expect for the future and their assessment of the US economy. Crucially, as trade wars rumble on, the Fed may look to comment on how this is affecting the US. Also worth watching out for are the monthly durable goods orders.

Monday (Time in HK & SG)

4 pm: German IFO index (September): business climate index to rise to 104 from 103.8. Market to watch: EUR crosses

9 pm: ECB President Draghi speaks: Market to watch: EUR crosses

8.30 pm: US Chicago Fed index (August): index expected to rise to 0.2 from 0.13. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Tuesday

7.50 am BoJ meeting minutes: these will reveal the discussion behind the latest decision. Market to watch: JPY crosses

10 pm US Conference Board consumer confidence (September): expected to fall to 131.3 from 133.4. Market to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

10 pm: US new home sales (August): expected to rise 2.2% MoM. Market to watch: US crosses

10.30 pm: US EIA crude inventories (w/c 21 September): stockpiles forecast to fall by 480,000 barrels from a 2 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

Thursday

2 am: FOMC decision (7.30pm press conference): the central bank is expected to raise rates to 2.25% from 2%, but this is all but a foregone conclusion, so the market impact will be in their projections for future rate rises, their assessment of the US economy and the impact (if any) from the US-China trade conflict. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

2 PM: German GfK consumer confidence (October): index to rise to 10.6 from 10.5. .Market to watch: EUR crosses

4 pm:Eurozone business confidence (September): forecast to drop to 1.15 from 1.22. .Market to watch: EUR crosses

2pm: German CPI (September, preliminary): forecast to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

8.30pm:US GDP (Q2, final reading), durable goods order (August), Personal consumption expenditure prices (Q2, final): GDP to rise 4.2% QoQ, durable goods orders to rise 1.7% from -1.7% MoM, and increase 0.5% from 0.2% MoM excluding transportation orders. PCE prices to rise 2.6% QoQ from 2.5%, and core PCE prices to increase by 2% from 2.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

10 pm: US pending home sales (August): forecast to fall 1.9% YoY from a 2.3% drop in July. Market to watch: USD crosses

Friday

4.30 am: Fed Chair Powell Speaks

7.30 am: Japan unemployment (August): jobless rate to fall to 2.4% from 2.5%. Market to watch: JPY crosses

3.55 pm: German unemployment (September): unemployment rate to hold at 5.2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

4.30 pm: UK GDP (Q2, final): forecast to be 1.3% YoY and 0.4% QoQ. Market to watch: GBP crosses

5 pm: eurozone CPI (September): forecast to be 2.1% YoY from 2%, and core CPI to be 1.2% from 1%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

8.30 pm: US personal income & spending (August): income to rise 0.4% MoM from 0.3% and 0.4% from 0.4% for spending. Market to watch: USD crosses

9.45 pm: US Chicago PMI (September): index to rise to 63.8 from 63.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

10 pm: US Michigan consumer sentiment (September, final): index to hold at 96.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

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