Markets is hoping the U.S. and China can put trade talks back on the road to a deal after President Donald Trump said he’s unlikely to meet President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline to avert higher American tariffs on Chinese goods.
Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are leading a group of administration officials headed to Beijing.
After the Federal Reserve sidelines its rate-hiking last week, economic's data back into focus this week. The biggest releases are consumer prices for January on Wednesday and industrial production on Friday, as well as the government shutdown-delayed report on December retail sales that will finally deliver a clearer picture of the holiday shopping season. That’s out Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks in Mississippi on Tuesday, albeit about economic development in rural areas.
Germany’s gross domestic product report for the fourth quarter, due for release on Thursday, will provide a firmer glimpse of the health of Europe’s biggest economy at a time when its loss of momentum looks increasingly precarious. It’s just conceivable that a previous official guess of slight growth could be revised closer to a recession after industrial production declined markedly in every month of the quarter. European finance ministers will be able to discuss the region’s economic woes when they meet at the start of the week in Brussels.
In the U.K., industrial production, inflation, retail sales and gross domestic product data will give a full picture of the state of Britain’s economy close to the halfway point of the last quarter before Brexit.
Japan’s economy likely bounced back in the fourth quarter from a contraction in the third, when the biggest drop in business spending in nine years amid a series of natural disasters weighed on output. But it’s a tame 1.4 percent annualized pace seen by economists as trade tensions loom over the export-reliant nation. The data is out on Thursday.
On Friday, Chinese consumer and factory inflation data is due the latter may slip into negative territory, causing a drag on the global inflation outlook as China’s factory prices and export prices are closely linked.
Economic Data (Time In HK/SG)
17:30 - UK trade balance (December), industrial & manufacturing production (December), GDP (December): trade deficit to narrow to Â£1.9 billion, while GDP to growth 0.3% MoM, and at a three month average of 0.3%. Q4 preliminary GDP reading to grow 0.3% QoQ and 1.3% YoY. Market to watch: GBP crosses
08:30 - Australia NAB business confidence (January): index to fall to 2 from 3. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
07:30 - Westpac Australia consumer confidence (February): index to fall to 99.2 from 99.6. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
17:30 - UK CPI (January): CPI to rise 2% YoY from 2.1%, and core CPI to rise 2.1% YoY and fall 0.7% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
21:30 - US CPI (January): CPI to rise 1.6% YoY and fall 0.1% MoM, and core CPI to rise 2.1% YoY from 2.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses
23:30 - EIA crude inventories (w/e 8 February): stockpiles rose by 1.26 million a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
07:50 - Japan GDP (Q4, preliminary): growth forecast to be 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% YoY. Market to watch: JPY crosses
3am – China trade balance (January): exports expected to fall 2.2% YoY. Market to watch: CNH crosses
15:00 - German GDP (Q4, flash): growth expected to be 0.2% QoQ and 0.9% YoY. Market to watch: EUR crosses
18:00 - eurozone GDP (Q4, preliminary): QoQ rate expected to be 0.2% and YoY 1.2%, from 0.2% and 1.6% respectively. Market to watch: EUR crosses
21:30 - US retail sales (December): expected to rise 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Evening – UK Parliament to vote on Brexit deal
21:30 - China CPI (January): prices to rise 2% YoY. Market to watch: CNH crosses
17:30 - UK retail sales (January): expected to rise 0.6% MoM. Market to watch: GBP crosses
21:30 - US Empire State mfg index (February): index to rise to 6 from 3.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
23:00 - US Michigan consumer confidence (February, preliminary): confidence to rise, with the index rising to 94.5 from 91.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
US companies earning report