Fed: One more hike, but far from done - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank explain that the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 1.50%1.75% and there were no dissents which is illustrative of the more hawkish composition of the FOMC in 2018. Key Quotes The median dot for 2018 has remained unchanged at three hikes but the mean dot did increase. Only a onedot move in June is now needed for four 2018 hikes. The changes to the economic projections were objectively [read more]

When are the German/ Eurozone flash PMIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?

German Eurozone flash PMIs Overview Amongst the Euro area economies the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance in terms of its impact on the European currency and the markets as well. The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI shows 58.1 for March slightly lower than previous months reading of 58.6 and the Eurozone services sector is also expected to come in a tad weaker at 56.0 in the reported month down from 56.2 booked in February. The flash manufacturing PMI [read more]

EUR/USD topped at 1.2556? – Commerzbank

Karen Jones Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank suggested a weekly close below 1.216555 could hint at the idea that the pair carved a top in the mid1.2500s. Key Quotes EURUSD has eroded the three month support line at 1.2265 this guards the more important 1.216555 area. This is made up of the midJanuary and current March lows and the 20172018 uptrend. A weekly close below here would add weight to the idea that the market recently topped at 1.2556. It needs to [read more]

GBP/USD further upside lacks momentum – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group stick to the neutral stance on Cable which is likely to return to the consolidative phase. Key Quotes 24hour view We indicated last Friday that GBP is expected to edge lower towards 1.3895 but were of the view that the prospect for a clear breach of this level is not high. GBP dropped to a low of 1.3887 before staging a surprisingly strong and swift rebound. The rapid swing has resulted in a mixed outlook and with most indicators [read more]

Market wrap: Brexit sentiment took a sharp downturn - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac explained that Brexit sentiment took a sharp downturn on the release of EU27s draft Brexit legal agreement and a diverging of views with UK.  Key Quotes Among a series of contentious issues the proposal for Northern Ireland to effectively remain within EU to accommodate Good Friday peace agreements and appease Southern Ireland has flared up in front of Mays minority government which is dependent upon N. Irelands DUP (proUK EU sceptic). The Irish border is increasingly problematic [read more]

EUR/USD looks to FOMC, US yields – Danske Bank

The pair remains weak and vigilant on the upcoming release of the FOMC minutes while higher yields should also collaborate with the downside pressure according to Jens Sorensen Chief Analyst at Danske Bank. Key Quotes EURUSD is under continued downward pressure as the USD weakness trend has been challenged by a continued uptick in US yields whereas the latter has until recently been driven by rising US inflation expectations we may be starting to see the first signs of the market pricing the Fed slightly [read more]

USD/JPY seen sidelined in the medium term – Danske Bank

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Morten Helt believes the pair could trade within the 108115 range in the medium to longer run. Key Quotes The selloff in the US and European fixed income markets is currently weighing on USDJPY and we expect the combination of portfolio flows choppy market conditions and stretched short speculative JPY positioning to push USDJPY lower going into fiscal yearend in Japan (on 31 March). We have thus revised our 1M and 3M forecasts lower to 104 in 13M [read more]

GBP/USD headed to psychological resistance at 1.4000? - Commerzbank

Karen Jones Analyst at Commerzbank notes that the GBPUSD pair remains poised to challenge the psychological barrier at 1.4000 but markets seem wary of failure at the last. Key Quotes GBPUSD spiked higher on Tuesday various intraday divergences suggest consolidation ahead of a move to psychological resistance at 1.40. We note the 13 count on the weekly chart and are wary of failure here. The market stays immediately bid above the 1.3512 2 month uptrend. We would allow for a retracement to [read more]

EUR/USD: remains on course to challenge the 1.2432 - Commerzbank

Karen Jones Analyst at Commerzbank offers a technical view of the EURUSD pair and foresees an extension of the current bullish trajectory in the nearterm. Key quotes EURUSD remains extremely bid very near term and has started to erode the 1.2066 pivot line. It remains on course to challenge the 1.2432 200 month ma. Support should be offered by the 1.2092 September high and the 20 day moving average at 1.1998 the market will remain immediately bid above here. Below 1.1998 [read more]

Goldman Sachs: Growth is bigger Fed-hike factor than market thinks - BBG

Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in its latest note [read more]