Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggested a weekly close below 1.2165/55 could hint at the idea that the pair carved a top in the mid-1.2500s.
“EUR/USD has eroded the three month support line at 1.2265, this guards the more important 1.2165/55 area. This is made up of the midJanuary and current March lows and the 2017-2018 uptrend. A weekly close below here would add weight to the idea that the market recently topped at 1.2556”.
“It needs to overcome the 1.2375 resistance line for a shot at last week’s high at 1.2413 ahead of the current March high at 1.2447. If the 1.2447 level were to unexpectedly be exceeded, the January and February highs at 1.2538/56 would be back in the picture”.
“Above the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2651 lies the 1.3190 50% retracement of the move down from 2008”.